As we followed the Wagner Group during 2022 and watched in horror the atrocities unfold and the war crimes they left behind, we at Paliscope also had an increasing desire to understand more about who they are, how they operate etc.
After following them for some time now we have a clear, articulate and broad view of the group’s modus operandi from the upper strategic levels to the tactics they use on the battlefields in occupied eastern Ukraine. But we also wanted to understand who supported them. Were there connections to the Nordics? Is the Wagner Group recruiting foreign fighters? And so on. The simple answer was YES. The connection between the Nordics and the Wagner Group came to light when we found what we believe is a solid connection between a known Wagner Group recruiter and Mr Paludan. From that moment, we understood that what we have followed from afar likely had connections to events here at home.
As we all know, Sweden and Finland have applied for NATO membership and their applications have so far been ratified by 28 out of 30 member countries to date. Hungary and Turkey remain outstanding – the latter of which has engaged in tense negotiations with Sweden. On the 21st of January, these negotiations came to a full and sudden stop following Mr Paludan’s burning of the Quran outside of the Turkish Embassy in Stockholm.
“From that moment, we understood that what we have followed from afar likely had connections to events here at home”
Was the burning of the Quran only an act aiming at protecting the right to freedom of speech as Mr Paludan claimed? Does the fact that we now believe that Mr Paludan is also connected to several Wagner Group fighters including a named recruiter change the view of the events on the 21st of January outside the Turkish Embassy in Stockholm?
Information operations is a well-known modus operandi of the Russian Intelligence services, and it is employed to serve strategic objectives. With that in mind, if we consider Mr Paludan’s likely affiliations to the Wagner Group in addition to Russia’s likely strategic objective of keeping Sweden out of NATO, or at least delaying its admission for as long as possible; it is not far-fetched to believe that the Quran burning served Russian strategic purposes and in fact had very little to do with Mr Paludan’s alleged concerns for Swedish freedom of speech civil rights.
Will we ever find out with 100% certainty? Most likely not. Is it time to take a step back and look at the mirrors on the wall this time from a slightly different and less one-dimensional angle? I believe the answer is Yes.
